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Position: Auto Articles - [Auto News] - Experts Say High Gasoline Prices a Long-term Trend
Updated: 04:20 p.m. EDT, May 20, 2008
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Experts Say High Gasoline Prices a Long-term Trend

According to an article by Joshua Boak and Greg Burns for The Chicago Tribune, high gasoline prices represent a long-term trend rather than a summer aberration.

According to oil industry experts, current price levels are ushering in a new petroleum era and will endure well beyond the Memorial Day weekend, long-regarded as the traditional summer gasoline peak. For the first time in six years, AAA predicts travel will decrease for that weekend.

Changes in the global pecking order in the international petroleum community will lead to $7 a gallon gas in the United States, according to the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, with demand in India and China growing while American consumption declines.

"The forces behind the oil boom include the emergence of China and India as economic powers," write Boak and Burns, "exhausted fields controlled by nationalized companies, and market speculation that could be pushing prices higher than supply and demand can justify. While industry insiders dispute how much each of these factors contributes to oil prices, many expect the high prices to last for years."

In the short-term, consumers have little choice but to suffer through the pain at the pump, but long-term changes are likely, including increased use of mass transit and personal transportation like bicycles. Sales of large vehicles like SUVs will continue to trend downward, with smaller more economically feasible and environmentally friendly vehicles ruling the market place.

The travel industry will suffer as well, with fewer Americans flying or taking traditional road trips. Given the effect of gasoline on transportation, a shift to more locally produced products is also probable. Joseph Dancy, manager of the Texas-based LSGI Venture Fund, was quoted in the Tribune article, "It's not going to be a one-year blip and go away like the Internet bubble. This is a matter of economics, and it's going to take a decade to work through."




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